I wrote an article two years ago saying you don't have to know any "science" to reject the vaccines (especially if you are under age 45 and especially if you are a healthy child). All you need is basic math skills that would allow you to understand simple statistical probabilities. What are the odds you would die from Covid?
For a healthy child (0 to 17) with no severe pre-existing conditions, the odds you would die from Covid in the span of a 1-year time in the first year of the pandemic were about 1-in-1.95 million. This is based on an in-depth UK study that looked at the real causes of all childhood deaths in the first year of the pandemic. As a percentage, that risk is 0.0001 percent.
Only six "healthy" children in the UK died "from" Covid in the first 12 months of the pandemic - out of about 11.7 million children who did not have severe pre-existing or 'life-altering" medical conditions.
Even a semi-old fart like me looked at the data and realized the 'best' course of action was to get the virus as quickly as possible so I would actually become the 'firebreak' that the media told us the vaccine provided. (Even so, it took me 20 months and an infected vaccinated friend before I caught it!)
I'm convinced I had it in early January 2020 - Got it from my daughter, who got it from her classmates or teacher, who all had it as well. My son got it from us as well. Eventually about half of Troy, Alabama seemed to have 'something." So I was off and running on my "early spread" hypothesis.
P.S. I haven't gotten it since and of course I haven't been vaccinated.
The problem is fewer people understand math, even simple math. Nor do they want to. Learning is soooo hard. Much easier to just let someone tell us the answer, like that nice dr fauch. Dwarfs wouldn't lie to us, would they?
Fordham University, in their misguided stubbornness, is still worshipping the dollar and mandating these things as well, while spewing the same nonsensical lies about protecting the community. Such supposedly well-meaning, educated, ethical people have not only come to the ludicrous conclusion that the mandates somehow help someone but they have doubled-down on them in the face of significant opposition. Never admit your mistakes, never admit defeat - the PR guide most people in power live by nowadays. Thank goodness for experts still speaking out for logic, ethics and plain old decency.
By March 2020 Iwas criticizing use of any resources to protect the non-obese and not immunocompromised younger than 50. I later raised this to younger than 70. The disease had an age-delimited profile with little to no harm for most "youngsters"
I wonder if some of the university requirements are in fact driven by federal research contracts...e.g. an explicit or implied quid pro quo whereby it is known among NIH grantseekers that are professors that if there is a low vaccination rate at the college then the reasearch grant request has a lower likelihood of being approved. Could that be one of the reasons some colleges have been so militaristic in their mandates?
Wayne state university in Michigan is one of the few remaining colleges claiming to follow science and require a covid vaccine and booster plus the flu vaccine. If you get an exemption you must test weekly.
The most surprising part of this article for me is the math around infection survival rate with and w/out the vaccine. I've read so many articles saying that x% of unvaccinated die of Covid infection and (much smaller) x% of vaccinated die. This is a different way of looking at the mortality data than what Bourbon has done here -- how am I to know which is the more accurate?
I should have emphasized that vaccination can increase the case-survival rate only by reducing the likelihood of death resulting from breakthrough cases compared to cases among the unvaccinated, where breakthrough cases include all cases occurring after the first dose of any COVID vaccine. The data upon which the AP relied to compute the overall COVID case-survival rate as of 23 July 2021 would have included relatively few breakthrough cases.
Pfizer's phase-III trial of BNT162b2 did not last long enough to provide meaningful data on the case-survival rate among vaccinated trial participants. Because placebo recipients were offered the vaccine shortly after the FDA issued its EUA for BNT162b2, the maximum follow-up period for Pfizer's trial is six months. Pfizer provides a trial report including six months of follow-up in a NEJM article (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110345). Table S4 from the article's supplementary appendix indicates that 131 of the 23,040 members of the vaccine group had a breakthrough case and Table S3 indicates 1 of these breakthrough cases resulted in death from COVID (COVID-19 pneumonia). This yields a case-survival rate of (1-1/131)x100% ~= 99.24%. During the same six-month period, Table S4 reports 1034 of the 23,037 members of the placebo group experienced a case of COVID-19 and Table S3 indicates 2 of these died from COVID, yielding a case survival rate of (1-2/1034)x100% ~= 99.81%.
On the other hand, a large study based on data from Thailand reports in Table 2, for the period 13 August 2021 to 31 January 2022, a total of 4244 breakthrough cases among 560,654 recipients of an mRNA vaccine. Only 1 of these breakthrough cases resulted in death from COVID, yielding a case-survival rate of (1-1/4244)x 100 % ~= 99.98%. Here's a link to the Thai study: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lansea.2022.100106. In the Thai study, if all COVID vaccinations (mRNA, AstraZeneca, CoronaVac, BBIBP-CorV) are taken into account, there were 431 COVID deaths from 63,469 breakthrough cases yielding a case-survival rate of (1-431/63469)x 100% ~= 99.32%.
Sadly that statement was before we had vaccinated a large number of people. Now few unvaccinated and dying and more vaccinated are; same for hospitalization. As the article notes there is negative effectiveness after time passes. Those unvaccinated have been infected and recovered thus have a stronger natural immunity. Furthermore some of us have been immune from the beginner per UK Challenge Trials https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01780-9
"The Covid crisis is based off of lies. " Yes, and one of the most well-known one now is the so-called method of detecting who actually had Covid - i.e. the PCR test. Since we know that in so many instances this was used at incorrect cycles, how can we have any confidence in any of the official figures of Covid infections?
I wrote an article two years ago saying you don't have to know any "science" to reject the vaccines (especially if you are under age 45 and especially if you are a healthy child). All you need is basic math skills that would allow you to understand simple statistical probabilities. What are the odds you would die from Covid?
For a healthy child (0 to 17) with no severe pre-existing conditions, the odds you would die from Covid in the span of a 1-year time in the first year of the pandemic were about 1-in-1.95 million. This is based on an in-depth UK study that looked at the real causes of all childhood deaths in the first year of the pandemic. As a percentage, that risk is 0.0001 percent.
Only six "healthy" children in the UK died "from" Covid in the first 12 months of the pandemic - out of about 11.7 million children who did not have severe pre-existing or 'life-altering" medical conditions.
Even a semi-old fart like me looked at the data and realized the 'best' course of action was to get the virus as quickly as possible so I would actually become the 'firebreak' that the media told us the vaccine provided. (Even so, it took me 20 months and an infected vaccinated friend before I caught it!)
I'm convinced I had it in early January 2020 - Got it from my daughter, who got it from her classmates or teacher, who all had it as well. My son got it from us as well. Eventually about half of Troy, Alabama seemed to have 'something." So I was off and running on my "early spread" hypothesis.
P.S. I haven't gotten it since and of course I haven't been vaccinated.
The problem is fewer people understand math, even simple math. Nor do they want to. Learning is soooo hard. Much easier to just let someone tell us the answer, like that nice dr fauch. Dwarfs wouldn't lie to us, would they?
Cross-posted! Amazing work!
Remarkably well written. Saving for future reference.
So what do you figure? Somewhere between 100k and 1m people in the western world who deserve life at hard labor over all of this?
Let them run on treadmills like Turnspit Dogs to provide us 'green' energy.
The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is STILL mandating covid jabs and covid testing for staff and students.
Fordham University, in their misguided stubbornness, is still worshipping the dollar and mandating these things as well, while spewing the same nonsensical lies about protecting the community. Such supposedly well-meaning, educated, ethical people have not only come to the ludicrous conclusion that the mandates somehow help someone but they have doubled-down on them in the face of significant opposition. Never admit your mistakes, never admit defeat - the PR guide most people in power live by nowadays. Thank goodness for experts still speaking out for logic, ethics and plain old decency.
By March 2020 Iwas criticizing use of any resources to protect the non-obese and not immunocompromised younger than 50. I later raised this to younger than 70. The disease had an age-delimited profile with little to no harm for most "youngsters"
Highly relevant viewing:
https://rumble.com/v1ze4d0-covid-19-vaccines-what-they-are-how-they-work-and-possible-causes-of-injuri.html
I wonder if some of the university requirements are in fact driven by federal research contracts...e.g. an explicit or implied quid pro quo whereby it is known among NIH grantseekers that are professors that if there is a low vaccination rate at the college then the reasearch grant request has a lower likelihood of being approved. Could that be one of the reasons some colleges have been so militaristic in their mandates?
Wayne state university in Michigan is one of the few remaining colleges claiming to follow science and require a covid vaccine and booster plus the flu vaccine. If you get an exemption you must test weekly.
What an excellent summary of the disaster we've all witnessed over the past 2 years!
The most surprising part of this article for me is the math around infection survival rate with and w/out the vaccine. I've read so many articles saying that x% of unvaccinated die of Covid infection and (much smaller) x% of vaccinated die. This is a different way of looking at the mortality data than what Bourbon has done here -- how am I to know which is the more accurate?
I should have emphasized that vaccination can increase the case-survival rate only by reducing the likelihood of death resulting from breakthrough cases compared to cases among the unvaccinated, where breakthrough cases include all cases occurring after the first dose of any COVID vaccine. The data upon which the AP relied to compute the overall COVID case-survival rate as of 23 July 2021 would have included relatively few breakthrough cases.
Pfizer's phase-III trial of BNT162b2 did not last long enough to provide meaningful data on the case-survival rate among vaccinated trial participants. Because placebo recipients were offered the vaccine shortly after the FDA issued its EUA for BNT162b2, the maximum follow-up period for Pfizer's trial is six months. Pfizer provides a trial report including six months of follow-up in a NEJM article (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110345). Table S4 from the article's supplementary appendix indicates that 131 of the 23,040 members of the vaccine group had a breakthrough case and Table S3 indicates 1 of these breakthrough cases resulted in death from COVID (COVID-19 pneumonia). This yields a case-survival rate of (1-1/131)x100% ~= 99.24%. During the same six-month period, Table S4 reports 1034 of the 23,037 members of the placebo group experienced a case of COVID-19 and Table S3 indicates 2 of these died from COVID, yielding a case survival rate of (1-2/1034)x100% ~= 99.81%.
On the other hand, a large study based on data from Thailand reports in Table 2, for the period 13 August 2021 to 31 January 2022, a total of 4244 breakthrough cases among 560,654 recipients of an mRNA vaccine. Only 1 of these breakthrough cases resulted in death from COVID, yielding a case-survival rate of (1-1/4244)x 100 % ~= 99.98%. Here's a link to the Thai study: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lansea.2022.100106. In the Thai study, if all COVID vaccinations (mRNA, AstraZeneca, CoronaVac, BBIBP-CorV) are taken into account, there were 431 COVID deaths from 63,469 breakthrough cases yielding a case-survival rate of (1-431/63469)x 100% ~= 99.32%.
Sadly that statement was before we had vaccinated a large number of people. Now few unvaccinated and dying and more vaccinated are; same for hospitalization. As the article notes there is negative effectiveness after time passes. Those unvaccinated have been infected and recovered thus have a stronger natural immunity. Furthermore some of us have been immune from the beginner per UK Challenge Trials https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01780-9
"The Covid crisis is based off of lies. " Yes, and one of the most well-known one now is the so-called method of detecting who actually had Covid - i.e. the PCR test. Since we know that in so many instances this was used at incorrect cycles, how can we have any confidence in any of the official figures of Covid infections?